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Midday Action: October 29
Thursday October 29, 9:58 am ET
By Chris Tyler


The recession is unofficially over while bulls officially enjoy a breather on an easier to appreciate trifecta of headline catalysts and one technical-based "Monbacky!" As of 11:00 ET the SP-500 (SPY) is up 1.25% as bulls' suit up as bargain-hunters.

Decent-sounding economic and corporate sound bites haven't hurt matters for Thursday's crusading bulls. Realistically though, "sell the news" aspirations after four straight days of deteriorating profit-taking conditions, does become a bit less attractive following a 4.50% price pinch for misbehaving green shoots excesses.

Spearheading on the headline front and aiding bulls hankering to snap up technical-based bargains of a short-term nature, Advance Q3 GDP data came in three-tenths of a percent above Street views. As much, cheers far and wide have been "herd on the Street" as growth of 3.50% unofficially means the recession is "now" even more firmly over per Thursday's quickly-turned, optimistic chorus.

Adding to the market's "cents" of relief, just 530,000 stepped in line for the first time to claim jobless benefits. The data largely confirms a "jobless something or other" is underway for the economy and came in slightly above forecasts of 525,000.

On the corporate confessional side, Procter & Gamble (PG) is helping bulls to "Jones" over Thursday's price reversal a bit more than otherwise would be the case. The Dow component and non-discretionary goods giant posted a $0.07 profit beat on in-line revenues and in-line guidance for Q2 and FY10. Technically, shares are up a hefty 3.50% from a four-week long flat base and hitting its best levels since January.

Elsewhere but very much intertwined in the ultimate success of today's market bid, "profit-taking" in the US Dollar (UUP). Following a strong four day run off its year-to-date lows and plenty of raised concerns over the unwinding of the carry / funding trade and tied at the hip green shoots optimism; a decline of 0.75% to 22.55 in UUP is providing incentive for bulls to reconsider commodity-related and recently nipped in the bud names.

Spearheading the charge, machinery titan Caterpillar (CAT) is performing some heavy lifting for bulls with gains of nearly 4.00% after its four day bulldozing of shares. Separately and in the same boat or umm, mine-bulls in materials giant Freeport McMoran (FCX) are digging gains of 5.50% near 77.50.

For Thursday's minority bear clan, First Solar (FSLR) is one source of fizzling good action. Shares of the alternative energy and NASDAQ 100 component are off about 17% after issuing a mixed report. The company posted a $0.05 profit beat of $1.79 per share, but missed revenues with growth of 38% and guided in-line with consensus views after reducing its prior forecast.

Technically, shares of FSLR have made good on past tendencies of its earnings report providing a strong move. This time around, trader reaction has sent shares firmly out of its multi-week symmetrical triangle consolidation.

The stock action has also allowed an existing but volatile edge for non-directional option strategists to profit from spreads like the long strangle. The last two years have been kind to this position type in the real world of trading, despite requiring traders to hold theoretically juiced premiums. From Tuesday night's Option Watch report, the November 160 / 145 strangle has gone from $16 to fetching about $20.50.

The profit win is actually the lightest yet found over the past several reporting periods based on this strategist's findings. Nonetheless, the larger-than-expected price move in FSLR has trumped an easily anticipated volatility crush of about 30% from implieds in the low to mid 70's to about 55% for Thursday's new ATM contract. The drop in premiums now matches the upper edge of its SV range of 36% to the mid 50s.


Finally, moving through the lunchtime nosh and bargain-hunting bulls still have their appetite as the SP-500 moves up another half percent to session highs and total gains of 1.80%. The price action has made good on reversing some of the strongly oversold short-term condition of the past couple sessions and punctuated by a stretch of nearly 16% in the VIX above its 10-SMA.

At this point, market bulls are likely comforted by Thursday's price action which has found a price gap and hold back above the sometimes coveted 50-SMA in the SPY. However, while the stars still look aligned for possibly another 1.50% of crowd relief over the next session or two; the expectation is for those recently planted "red chutes" to re-emerge sooner rather than later.

Chris Tyler
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site
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The information offered here is based upon Christopher Tyler's observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only, the use of which is the responsibility of the individual.



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