One week ago, bulls were cheering the latest great buying opportunity and this column addressed a long-in-the-tooth bull looking anything but friendly for trend traders. In fact, the piece discussed counter-trend bearish plays or those stocks already having found their own little bear markets within the still roaming bull at large.

The market prognosis was dead on. But in the irony of ironies, highlighted names such as Texas Instruments (TXN) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and honorable mentions for Qualcomm (QCOM) and Verizon (VZ) have found this corner's delta forecasts to be either "early", to put it in the most positive light, or simply unimpressive, all things considered.

"Mooving" forward to the after math of Wednesday's session, five days later and the SP-500 is at 104.40 and the CBOE Volatility Index is at 27%. Ingested alone, that doesn't mean much. However, when we consider facts such as the giddy October rally having gone the way of the dodo bird and shed more than 3.50% and just south of its sometimes coveted 50-SMA, it means a "Monbacky!" could be upon us.

Additionally, when we consider the VIX has gone from a test of 20%, rallied some 35% to our current levels of 27.83% and stretched itself by nearly 16% above the short-term 10-SMA-well, bulls aching for an end to the pullback have some extra confirmation for a playable bounce situation.

Let me be clear: "playable bounce" is short term. That means two, maybe three, days of holding before some type of adjustment or exit would be required. And if the lows were penetrated by more than a fraction beyond the first hour, I'd personally be quick to exit and not stand in the way of progress.

Ultimately, any relief or unwind of the oversold condition will still be viewed from the standpoint of a good short within a market that's seen its best days for quite some time and potentially a nascent downtrend.

Figure 1: SP-500 (SPY) Weekly Topping

Bottom line, my membership as a Bovinus Optimus is limited to the quick fade, as I'm still concerned ultimately about those devilish details seen in the weekly chart shown above. Let the perma-bulls average in if they so chose, but not me.

The view is the 100 level or bulls' old friend of "SP-1000" is far from out of the question and testing into the mid 90s seen as a possibility not to be dismissed. Beyond that, I don't know. However, I do think 3.50% to 4.00% of additional downside, at a minimum, is something I'd rather not endure as a stubborn bull feeding too heavily on green shoots already sown.

Chris Tyler
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site
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The information offered here is based upon Christopher Tyler's observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only, the use of which is the responsibility of the individual.